French hostages probably separated, Hollande says

PARIS/MAIDUGURI, Nigeria (Reuters) - Seven French hostages abducted by suspected Nigerian Islamist militants have probably been separated into two groups and efforts are continuing to locate them, French President Francois Hollande said on Thursday.

French, Nigerian and Cameroonian officials earlier denied French media reports that the seven family members, who were seized in Cameroon on Tuesday and taken over the border, had been freed.

"It's best to work discreetly for now to identify the exact place where our citizens are being held - most likely in two groups - and work out how we can free them under the best conditions," Hollande told reporters.

Paris was "fully cooperating" with Nigeria and Cameroon, he added, noting that French troops were nearby as their base was in the Chadian capital N'Djamena, 150 km (93 miles) away.

The Nigerian military located the hostages and kidnappers between Dikwa and Ngala in the far northeast, a Nigerian military source in Borno said earlier on Thursday, asking not to be identified.

Dikwa is less than 80 km (50 miles) from the border with Cameroon where the three adults and four children were taken hostage on Tuesday.

A senior Cameroonian military official declined to comment, saying the matter was too sensitive.

French gendarmes backed by special forces arrived in northern Cameroon on Wednesday to help locate the family, a local governor and French defense ministry official said.

Citing a Cameroon army officer, French media reported earlier on Thursday that the hostages had been found alive in a house in northern Nigeria. That was denied by the France, Nigeria and Cameroon.

DIFFICULT SITUATION

The abduction was the first case of foreigners being seized in the mostly Muslim north of Cameroon, a former French colony, and highlighted the threat to French interests in West Africa since Paris deployed thousands of troops to Mali to oust al Qaeda-linked Islamists who controlled the country's north.

But the region - like others in West and North Africa with porous borders - is considered within the operational sphere of Boko Haram and fellow Nigerian Islamist militants Ansaru.

On Sunday, seven foreigners were snatched from the compound of Lebanese construction company Setraco in northern Nigeria's Bauchi state, and Ansaru took responsibility.

Northern Nigeria increasingly is afflicted by attacks and kidnappings by Islamist militants. Ansaru, which rose to prominence only in recent months, has claimed the abduction in December of a French national who is still missing.

Three foreigners were killed in two failed rescue attempts last year after being kidnapped in northern Nigeria and Ansaru, blamed for those kidnaps, warned this could happen again.

"Staging a successful rescue is always difficult, but even more so if the kidnappers are waiting for it," said Peter Sharwood-Smith, Nigeria country manager of security firm Drum Cussac.

"After the death of three European hostages in rescue-intervention attempts last year, Nigeria and France will be hoping for a peaceful resolution. The problem could be the kidnappers lack of enthusiasm for negotiation or deals. The fact that four of the hostages are children adds further difficulty to the decision for France and Nigeria."

The kidnapping in Cameroon brought to 15 the number of French citizens being held in West Africa.

(Additional reporting by Elizabeth Pineau in Paris, Tansa Musa in Yaounde, Joe Brock in Abuja and Bate Felix and John Irish in Dakar; Writing by Bate Felix and John Irish; Editing by Michael Roddy)

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Diane Lane and Josh Brolin to Divorce

Diane Lane, 48, and Josh Brolin, 45, are divorcing after eight years of marriage.

"Diane Lane and Josh Brolin have decided to end their marriage," reps for the couple confirm to ET.

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According to Us Weekly, the divorce "was a mutual decision. It is very amicable. It's not ugly, it's just over."

The two reportedly already split a couple of months ago, and have no children together.

Video: Diane Lane After Husband Josh Brolin's Arrest

This will be the second divorce for both stars.

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Flu shot did poor job against worst bug in seniors

ATLANTA (AP) — For those 65 and older, this season's flu shot is only 9 percent effective against the most common and dangerous flu bug, according to a startling new government report.

Flu vaccine tends to protect younger people better than older ones and never works as well as other kinds of vaccines. But experts say the preliminary results for seniors are disappointing and highlight the need for a better vaccine.

For all age groups, the vaccine's effectiveness is moderate at 56 percent, which is nearly as well as other flu seasons, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday.

For those 65 and older, it is 27 percent effective against the three strains in the vaccine, the lowest in about a decade but not far below from what's expected. But the vaccine did a particularly poor job of protecting older people against the harshest flu strain, which is causing most of the illnesses this year. CDC officials say it's not clear why.

Vaccinations are now recommended for anyone over 6 months, and health officials stress that some vaccine protection is better than none at all. While it's likely that older people who were vaccinated are still getting sick, many of them may be getting less severe symptoms.

"Year in and year out, the vaccine is the best protection we have," said CDC flu expert Dr. Joseph Bresee.

To be sure, the preliminary data for seniors is less than definitive. It is based on fewer than 300 people scattered among five states.

But it will no doubt surprise many people that the effectiveness is that low, said Michael Osterholm, a University of Minnesota infectious disease expert who has tried to draw attention to the need for a more effective flu vaccine.

Among infectious diseases, flu is considered one of the nation's leading killers. On average, about 24,000 Americans die each flu season, according to the CDC.

This flu season started in early December, a month earlier than usual, and peaked by the end of year. Older people are most vulnerable to flu and its complications, and the nation has seen some of the highest hospitalization rates for people 65 and older in a decade.

Flu viruses tend to mutate more quickly than others, and it's not unusual for multiple strains to be spreading at the same time. A new vaccine is formulated each year targeting the three strains expected to be the major threats. But that involves guesswork.

Because of these challenges, scientists tend to set a lower bar for flu vaccine. While childhood vaccines against diseases like measles are expected to be 90 or 95 percent effective, a flu vaccine that's 60 to 70 percent effective in the U.S. is considered pretty good.

By that standard, this year's vaccine is OK. The 56 percent effectiveness figure means people have a 56 percent lower chance of winding up at the doctor for treatment of flu symptoms.

For seniors, a flu vaccine is considered pretty good if it's in the 30 to 40 percent range, said Dr. Arnold Monto, a University of Michigan flu expert.

Older people have weaker immune systems that don't respond as well to flu shots. That's why a high-dose version was recently made available for those 65 and older. The new study was too small to show whether that made a difference this year.

The CDC estimates are based on about 2,700 people who got sick in December and January. The researchers traced back to see who had gotten flu shots and who hadn't. An earlier study put the vaccine's overall effectiveness slightly higher, at 62 percent.

The CDC's Bresee said there's a danger in providing preliminary results because it may result in people doubting — or skipping — flu shots. But the data was released to warn older people who got shots that they may still get sick and shouldn't ignore any serious flu-like symptoms, he said.

The new data highlights an evolution in how experts are evaluating flu vaccine effectiveness. For years, it was believed that if the viruses in the vaccine matched the ones spreading around the country, then the vaccine would be effective. This year's shot was a good match to the bugs going around this winter, including the harsher H3N2 that tends to make people sicker.

But the season proved to be a moderately severe one, with many illnesses occurring in people who'd been vaccinated.

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Online:

CDC report: http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr

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Wall Street slips after rally, energy shares fall

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday, pressured by a drop in energy shares as investors found few reasons to buy equities following a rally that has held major indexes near five-year highs for around three weeks.

Equities have been strong recently, to the point that the day's modest decline was the largest for the S&P 500 since February 4. The index has jumped about 7 percent so far this year and is on track for its eighth straight week of gains.

However, many of those weekly gains have been slight, with equities trading within a narrow range for the past few weeks, suggesting valuations may be stretched at current levels.

"The market seems very tired and listless, and investors are prone to take profits now as they wait for the music to stop," said Matt McCormick, money manager at Bahl & Gaynor in Cincinnati.

Energy companies were among the weakest, hurt by disappointing results and a 2.2 percent drop in crude oil prices. The Energy Select Sector SPDR fell 0.9 percent, though it remains up 10.1 percent for the year.

Newfield Exploration tumbled 7.7 percent to $25.20 while Devon Energy Corp dropped 4 percent to $58.17. Both companies posted fourth-quarter losses, with Devon hurt as it wrote down the value of its assets by $896 million because of weak natural gas prices.

Housing shares also declined, pressured by weaker-than-expected results at Toll Brothers Inc and a drop in groundbreaking to build new U.S. homes, also known as housing starts, in January.

Toll Brothers' stock fell 5.4 percent to $34.91, but is up about 8 percent so far this year, building on a jump of nearly 60 percent in 2012. The Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction index <.djushb> lost 4 percent.

"Valuations appear a bit high at these levels, and if I was in a name that had seen a huge run, I'd want to take some chips off the table," said McCormick, who helps oversee about $8.2 billion in assets.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> was down 12.13 points, or 0.09 percent, at 14,023.54. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was down 6.20 points, or 0.40 percent, at 1,524.74. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was down 19.10 points, or 0.59 percent, at 3,194.49.

The Dow's losses were limited by Boeing Co , up 1.4 percent at $75.67 after a source told Reuters that the company had found a way to fix battery problems on its grounded 787 Dreamliner jets. Concerns over that line have weighed on Boeing recently, contributing to a 2 percent drop in the stock's price in January.

Investors are also waiting for the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's January meeting due at 2 p.m. (1900 GMT) for clues to the interest-rate outlook, as well as for any indication as to how long the Fed will keep buying bonds each month to bolster the U.S. economy and employment.

In other data released on Wednesday, permits for future home building rose in January to a 4 1/2-year high while a separate report showed wholesale prices rose last month for the first time in four months. The U.S. Producer Price Index rose in January for the first time in four months.

Shares of OfficeMax Inc fell 4.2 percent to $12.45 while Office Depot slid 14.3 percent to $4.30 as the companies announced a $1.2 billion merger agreement. The shares had surged in Tuesday's session after a source said a deal would be announced. Rival Staples Inc fell 7.6 percent to $13.53 and ranked as one of the S&P 500's biggest decliners.

SodaStream dropped 3.7 percent to $50.50 after the seller of home carbonated drink maker machines posted fourth-quarter earnings and provided a 2013 outlook.

According to Thomson Reuters data through Tuesday morning, of the 405 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results so far, 71 percent have exceeded analysts' expectations, compared with a 62 percent average since 1994 and 65 percent over the past four quarters.

Fourth-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are estimated to have risen 5.7 percent, according to the data, exceeding a forecast for a 1.9 percent gain at the start of the earnings season.

(Editing by Kenneth Barry and Jan Paschal)

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Bulgarian government resigns amid growing protests

SOFIA (Reuters) - Bulgaria's government resigned on Wednesday after mass protests against high power prices and falling living standards, joining a long list of European administrations felled by austerity during four years of debt crisis.

Prime Minister Boiko Borisov, an ex-bodyguard who took power in 2009 on pledges to root out graft and raise incomes in the European Union's poorest member, faces a tough task of propping up eroding support ahead of an expected early election.

Wage and pension freezes and tax hikes have bitten deep in a country where earnings are less than half the EU average and tens of thousands of Bulgarians have rallied in protests that have turned violent, chanting "Mafia" and "Resign".

Moves by Borisov on Tuesday to blame foreign utility companies for the rise in the cost of heating homes was to no avail and an eleventh day of marches saw 15 people hospitalized and 25 arrested in clashes with police.

"My decision to resign will not be changed under any circumstances. I do not build roads so that blood is shed on them," said Borisov, who began his career guarding the Black Sea state's communist dictator Todor Zhivkov.

A karate black belt, Borisov has cultivated a Putin-like "can-do" image since he entered politics as Sofia mayor in 2005 and would connect with voters by showing up on the capital's rutted streets to oversee the repair of pot-holes.

But critics say he has often skirted due process, sometimes to the benefit of those close to him, and his swift policy U-turns have wounded the public's trust.

The spark for the protests was high electricity bills, after the government raised prices by 13 percent last July. But it quickly spilled over into wider frustration with Borisov and political elites with perceived links to shadowy businesses.

"He made my day," said student Borislav Hadzhiev in central Sofia, commenting on Borisov's resignation. "The truth is that we're living in an extremely poor country."

POLLS, PRICES

The prime minister's final desperate moves on Tuesday included cutting power prices and risking a diplomatic row with the Czech Republic by punishing companies including CEZ, moves which conflicted with EU norms on protection of investors and due process.

CEZ officials were hopeful on Wednesday that it would be able to avoid losing its distribution license after all and officials from the Bulgarian regulator said the company would not be punished if it dealt with breaches of procedure.

But shares in what is central Europe's largest publicly-listed company fell another 1 percent on Wednesday.

If pushed through, the fines for CEZ and two other foreign-owned firms will not encourage other investors in Bulgaria, who already have to navigate complicated bureaucracy and widespread corruption and organized crime to take advantage of Bulgaria's 10-percent flat tax rate.

Financial markets reacted negatively to the turbulence on Wednesday. The cost of insuring Bulgaria's debt rose to a three-month high and debt yields rose some 15 basis points, though the country's low deficit of 0.5 percent of gross domestic product means there is little risk to the lev currency's peg against the euro.

Borisov's interior minister indicated that elections originally planned for July would probably be pulled forward by saying that his rightist GERB party would not take part in talks to form a new government.

MILLIONS GONE

GERB's woes have echoes in another ex-communist EU member, Slovenia, where demonstrators have taken to the streets and added pressure to a crumbling conservative government.

A small crowd gathered in support of Borisov outside Sofia's parliament, which is expected to approve his resignation on Thursday, while bigger demonstrations against the premier were expected in the evening.

Unemployment in the country of 7.3 million is far from the highs hit in the decade after the end of communism but remains at 11.9 percent. Average salaries are stuck at around 800 levs ($550) a month and millions have emigrated, leaving swathes of the country depopulated and little hope for those who remain.

GERB's popularity has held up well and it still led in the latest polls before protests grew in size last weekend, but analysts say the opposition Socialists should draw strength from the demonstrations.

The leftists, successors to Bulgaria's communist party, have proposed tax cuts and wage hikes and are likely to raise questions about public finances if elected.

(Additional reporting by Angel Krasimirov; editing by Patrick Graham)

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BlackBerry Z10 sales estimate slashed by 83% due to slow launch, upcoming competition

Some industry watchers had high hopes for BlackBerry’s (BBRY) first next-generation smartphone in its debut quarter, but it looks like they may have gotten ahead of themselves. Now, the Street is revising its estimates in light of a slower than expected rollout and what appears to be a softer launch than many had hoped for.

[More from BGR: Google shows us what it’s like to use Project Glass [video]]

Canaccord Genuity analyst T. Michael Walkley had initially called for BlackBerry to sell about 1.75 million BlackBerry Z10 smartphones in the February quarter. But after his checks following the phone’s launch in the UK and Canada found limited initial supply and softer than expected demand, the analyst slashed his estimates for the current quarter from 1.75 million units to just 300,000.

[More from BGR: Despite rumored of declining demand, Apple’s iPhone 5 is the No.1 smartphone in the world]

“Our global surveys post the recent BlackBerry Z10 launch indicated mixed initial sales with limited initial supply cited as the reason for early post-launch stock-outs at some carrier stores rather than overwhelming demand,” Walkley wrote in a note to investors. “Our follow-up checks have indicated steady but modest sales levels. With new BB10 smartphones launching in the U.S. only in mid-March or later at subsidized prices no better than competing high-end Apple/Samsung smartphones, combined with our expectations for the Galaxy S IV to launch at a similar time frame in the US market, we are lowering our BB10 sales estimates for the February quarter and all of F2014.”

The analyst continued, noting that “modest Z10 sales into the channel in the U.K. and Canada” were largely responsible for his decision to lower his Z10 sales estimates by 83% for the February quarter. Moving forward, Walkley believes things will remain bleak for BlackBerry.

“We believe carrier support for BlackBerry 10 in the U.S. is modest, as demonstrated by Sprint only planning to launch the Q10 and T-Mobile only the Z10,” he wrote. “Further, we anticipate carriers will not build large inventory levels for BB10, consistent with prior BB7 high-end launches, and will initially stock modest levels given the weaker consumer demand for high-end BlackBerry smartphones.”

Walkley continued, “With our expectations BB10 smartphones will face increasing competition from a host of new Android and Windows smartphones and potentially a new iPhone in 1H/C2013, we anticipate global carrier partners will order cautious initial BB10 inventory levels, leading us to lower our Feb. quarter and F2014 BB10 estimates.”

Canaccord maintained its Sell rating on BlackBerry shares with a $ 9 price target.

This article was originally published on BGR.com

Wireless News Headlines – Yahoo! News

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Vanity Fair Party: Freida Pinto, Chloe Grace Moretz, Jessica Lowndes on Oscars

With the Academy Awards just a few days away, this Sunday's anticipated ceremony is all the buzz this week. At an event benefiting the global education campaign 10x10, the night's host, Freida Pinto, revealed her Oscar favorite.

"One of the films that I was truly surprised with...[and] truly entertained was 'Argo,'" the actress said of her favorite film of the year. "It was an all-around entertaining film for me. ...I was on the edge of my seat throughout the film. Good luck to the film."

PICS: Look Who's Presenting at The Oscars!

The Immortals actress was host of the D.J. Night event hosted by Vanity Fair and L'Oréal Paris and also narrated part of 10x10's film Girl Rising, which highlights the organization's main motif that education can change someone's life.

Also, a narrator of the film was 16-year-old actress Chloë Grace Moretz, who divulged an actress that she'll be rooting for at the Oscars.

"I really, really hope Anne Hathaway wins because I love her and she's the sweetest girl you'll ever meet," Moretz said of the Les Misérables actress nominated for Best Supporting Actress.

VIDEO: Olivia Munn & More Reveal Oscar Favorites

With many great films and performances nominated for the same awards, it's difficult not only for the Academy but fans as well to pinpoint one film or performance that exceeds the others.

"I'm rooting for them all," 90210 actress Jessica Lowndes said. "I know it's generic and kind of what everyone says, but as an actress I just get so excited for everybody. It's such an accomplishment. ...I just get happy for everybody, so I'm excited for everything."

Select your favorites for this Sunday's Academy Awards with ETonline's interactive Oscars ballot.

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Drug overdose deaths up for 11th consecutive year

CHICAGO (AP) — Drug overdose deaths rose for the 11th straight year, federal data show, and most of them were accidents involving addictive painkillers despite growing attention to risks from these medicines.

"The big picture is that this is a big problem that has gotten much worse quickly," said Dr. Thomas Frieden, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which gathered and analyzed the data.

In 2010, the CDC reported, there were 38,329 drug overdose deaths nationwide. Medicines, mostly prescription drugs, were involved in nearly 60 percent of overdose deaths that year, overshadowing deaths from illicit narcotics.

The report appears in Tuesday's Journal of the American Medical Association.

It details which drugs were at play in most of the fatalities. As in previous recent years, opioid drugs — which include OxyContin and Vicodin — were the biggest problem, contributing to 3 out of 4 medication overdose deaths.

Frieden said many doctors and patients don't realize how addictive these drugs can be, and that they're too often prescribed for pain that can be managed with less risky drugs.

They're useful for cancer, "but if you've got terrible back pain or terrible migraines," using these addictive drugs can be dangerous, he said.

Medication-related deaths accounted for 22,134 of the drug overdose deaths in 2010.

Anti-anxiety drugs including Valium were among common causes of medication-related deaths, involved in almost 30 percent of them. Among the medication-related deaths, 17 percent were suicides.

The report's data came from death certificates, which aren't always clear on whether a death was a suicide or a tragic attempt at getting high. But it does seem like most serious painkiller overdoses were accidental, said Dr. Rich Zane, chair of emergency medicine at the University of Colorado School of Medicine.

The study's findings are no surprise, he added. "The results are consistent with what we experience" in ERs, he said, adding that the statistics no doubt have gotten worse since 2010.

Some experts believe these deaths will level off. "Right now, there's a general belief that because these are pharmaceutical drugs, they're safer than street drugs like heroin," said Don Des Jarlais, director of the chemical dependency institute at New York City's Beth Israel Medical Center.

"But at some point, people using these drugs are going to become more aware of the dangers," he said.

Frieden said the data show a need for more prescription drug monitoring programs at the state level, and more laws shutting down "pill mills" — doctor offices and pharmacies that over-prescribe addictive medicines.

Last month, a federal panel of drug safety specialists recommended that Vicodin and dozens of other medicines be subjected to the same restrictions as other narcotic drugs like oxycodone and morphine. Meanwhile, more and more hospitals have been establishing tougher restrictions on painkiller prescriptions and refills.

One example: The University of Colorado Hospital in Aurora is considering a rule that would ban emergency doctors from prescribing more medicine for patients who say they lost their pain meds, Zane said.

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Stobbe reported from Atlanta.

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Online:

JAMA: http://www.jama.ama-assn.org

CDC: http://www.cdc.gov

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AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com

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M&A deals lift shares, suggest more value in market

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday as merger activity suggested the market could offer investors still more value even as the S&P 500 and Dow industrials hover near five-year highs.

Equities have resisted a pullback as investors use dips in stocks as buying opportunities. The S&P is up about 7 percent so far in 2013 and has climbed for the past seven weeks in its longest weekly winning streak since January 2011, though most of the weekly gains have been slim.

Office Depot Inc surged 9.4 percent to $5, pulling back from earlier highs after a person familiar with the matter said the No. 2 U.S. office supply retailer was in advanced talks to merge with smaller rival OfficeMax Inc . A deal could come as early as this week.

OfficeMax jumped 20 percent to $12.94 while larger rival Staples Inc shot up 9.4 percent to $14.17 as the best performer on the S&P 500.

More than $158 billion in deals has been announced thus far in 2013. Last week, agreements included the acquisition of H.J. Heinz Co by Berkshire Hathaway , and the sale by General Electric of its remaining stake in NBCUniversal to Comcast Corp .

"Equity investors have to be encouraged by M&A since, if the number crunchers are offering large premiums, that shows how much value is still in the market," said Mike Gibbs, co-head of the equity advisory group at Raymond James in Memphis, Tennessee.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> was up 37.81 points, or 0.27 percent, at 14,019.57. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was up 6.84 points, or 0.45 percent, at 1,526.63. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was up 9.39 points, or 0.29 percent, at 3,201.42.

U.S. markets were closed on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday.

Health insurance stocks tumbled, led by a 7 percent drop in Humana Inc to $72.50 after the company said the government's proposed 2014 payment rates for Medicare Advantage participants were lower than expected and would hurt its profit outlook.

UnitedHealth Group lost 1.7 percent to $56.37the biggest drag on the Dow. The Morgan Stanley healthcare payor index <.hmo> dropped 1.6 percent.

Express Scripts rose 2.4 percent to $56.87 after the pharmacy benefits manager posted fourth-quarter earnings.

Wall Street's strong start to the year for was fueled by stronger-than-expected corporate earnings, as well as a compromise by legislators in Washington that temporarily averted automatic spending cuts and tax hikes that are predicted to damage the economy.

The compromise on across-the-board spending cuts postponed the matter until March 1, at which point the cuts take effect. Ahead of the debate over the cuts, known as sequestration, further gains for stocks may be difficult to come by.

"If there's no major contention with sequestration, it looks like stocks are prepared to handle it, but until then we'll probably stay in a consolidation period marked by sideways trading with a slow rate of ascent," said Gibbs.

Economic data showed the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market index unexpectedly edged down to 46 in February from 47 in the prior month as builders faced higher material costs.

According to the Thomson Reuters data through Monday morning, of the 391 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results, 70.1 percent have exceeded analysts' expectations, compared with a 62 percent average since 1994 and 65 percent over the past four quarters.

Fourth-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies have risen 5.6 percent, according to the data, above a 1.9 percent forecast at the start of the earnings season.

(Additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Kenneth Barry and Nick Zieminski)

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Venezuela's Maduro would win vote if Chavez goes: poll

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuelan Vice President Nicolas Maduro would win a presidential vote should his boss Hugo Chavez's cancer force him out, according to the first survey this year on such a scenario in the South American OPEC nation.

Local pollster Hinterlaces gave Maduro 50 percent of potential votes, compared to 36 percent for opposition leader Henrique Capriles.

Chavez made a surprise return to Venezuela on Monday, more than two months after cancer surgery in Cuba, to continue treatment at home for the disease that is jeopardizing his 14-year socialist rule.

He has named Maduro, 50, a former bus driver and union activist, as his preferred successor.

Capriles, 40, a center-left state governor who lost to Chavez in a presidential vote last year, likely would run again.

Chavez still has not spoken in public since his December 11 operation in Cuba. Venezuelans were debating on Tuesday the various possible scenarios after his homecoming - from full recovery to resignation or even death from the cancer.

There was widespread expectation Chavez would soon be formally sworn in for his new six-year term at the Caracas military hospital where officials said he was staying. The January 10 ceremony was postponed while he was in Cuba.

"The president's timeline is strictly linked to his medical evolution and recovery," said Rodrigo Cabezas, a senior member of Chavez's ruling Socialist Party who, like other officials, would not comment on when he might be sworn in.

CAPRILES ANGRY

Should Chavez be forced out, Venezuela's constitution stipulates an election must be held within 30 days, giving Capriles and the opposition Democratic Unity coalition another chance to end the socialists' lengthy grip on power.

Capriles, who crossed swords with Hinterlaces at various points during the presidential election, again accused its director, Oscar Schemel, of bias in the latest survey.

"That man is not a pollster, he's on the government's payroll," Capriles told local TV.

"He said in December I would lose the Miranda governorship," he added, referring to his defeat of government heavyweight Elias Jaua, now foreign minister, in that local race.

Opinion surveys are notoriously controversial and divergent in Venezuela, with both sides routinely accusing pollsters of being in the pocket of the other. But Hinterlaces successfully forecast Chavez's win with 55 percent of the vote in October.

Its latest poll was of 1,230 people between January 30-February 9.

Polls last year showed Capriles - an energetic basketball-playing lawyer who admires Brazil's centrist mix of free-market economics with strong social welfare policies - as more popular than any of Chavez's senior allies.

But Chavez's personal blessing of Maduro, on the eve of his last cancer surgery, has transformed his status and made him the heir apparent for many of the president's supporters.

As de facto leader since mid-December, Maduro also has built up a stronger public profile, copying the president's techniques of endless live TV appearances, especially to inaugurate new public works or promote popular policies like subsidized food.

He lacks Chavez's charisma, however, and opponents have slammed him as a "poor imitation" and incompetent.

EMOTION

Local analyst Luis Vicente Leon said that should Chavez die, Maduro would benefit from the emotion unleashed among his millions of passionate supporters in Venezuela.

"The funeral wake for Chavez would merge into the election campaign," he told a local newspaper, noting how Argentine President Cristina Fernandez's popularity surged when her husband and predecessor Nestor Kirchner died in 2010.

Maduro already has implemented an unpopular devaluation of the local currency and said more economic measures are coming this week in what local economists view as austerity measures after blowout spending prior to last year's election.

In Caracas, the streets were quieter after tumultuous celebrations of Chavez's homecoming by supporters on Monday. A few journalists stood outside the military hospital.

Prayer vigils were planned in various parts of Venezuela.

"We hope Chavez will stay governing because he is a strong man," supporter Cristina Salcedo, 50, said in Caracas.

Student demonstrators who had chained themselves near the Cuban Embassy last week, demanding more information on Chavez's condition, called off their protest after his return.

Until photos were published of him on Friday, the president had not been seen by the public since his six-hour December 11 operation, the fourth since cancer was detected in mid-2011.

The government has said Chavez is breathing through a tracheal tube and struggling to speak.

Bolivian President Evo Morales arrived in Caracas on Tuesday in the hope of visiting his friend and fellow leftist.

(Additional reporting by Deisy Buitrago, Mario Naranjo, Girish Gupta in Caracas, Carlos Quiroga in La Paz; Editing by Bill Trott)

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